5 Card Blackjack
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*Blackjack 5 Cards Under 21
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In the game of Blackjack, the term ’5 card charlie’ can be an option in the favor of the blackjack player instead of the casino. In this case, the player would win if they have 5 cards on the table for a single. Myth Debunked: Blackjack – Five Card Charlie April 16, 2014 / 22580 views I’ve been asked on occasion by players who would have five cards in front of them at a blackjack table about something called a “five card charlie”, which, in blackjack terms is a five card hand that does not exceed 21. Well I’m here to tell you. What is the Blackjack 5 card rule? I think the five card blackjack (21) rule you are asking about is what if you are playing blackjack and have five cards that total to an amount less than 21 and that is an automatic winner. People who play blackjack at home sometimes implement the “five-card-under” rule. 21 dealers in casinos are sometimes alerted by a player that they have five-cards-under.
One of the most-exciting things in blackjack is getting a “natural” hand, where your first two dealt cards equal 21. Provided the dealer doesn’t also have 21, you’ll receive either a 3 to 2 or 6 to 5 bonus payout.
Here’s how much you’d get for each of these payouts based on a $10 bet:
*3 to 2 payout = $15
*6 to 5 payout = $12
Many recreational blackjack players are happy to get a natural under any circumstances. And $3 doesn’t seem like a big difference in the scenario above.
This is especially true when considering that you’ll only receive a blackjack 4.75% of the time in a 6-deck game. But changing a natural blackjack payout from 3:2 to 6:5 does have a noticeable impact on your odds of winning.
The house edge increases by 1.39% when the natural payout is lowered to 6:5. This difference is profound enough to the point where players wonder if it’s even possible to beat 6:5 games.
I’m going to cover how you can improve your chances of winning in 6:5 blackjack with basic strategy. And you may be surprised to learn that it’s theoretically possible to beat 6:5 games when counting cards under the right conditions.
But first, here’s a look at when land-based casinos began switching to the 6:5 format and why they did it.Shifting Casino Focus Caused Rise in 6 to 5 Blackjack
Mostland-based blackjack games used to feature 3 to 2 payouts. This meant that you could pick just about any blackjack table and have a solid chance of winning.
But many blackjack tables around the world now have 6 to 5 payouts. This is obviously worse for players, because it’s harder to find beatable blackjack games.The reason why brick-and-mortar casinos now offer 6:5 blackjack is because their focus has shifted away from gambling.
This isn’t to say that casinos don’t still care about gamblers. But many don’t consider gambling part of an all-around entertainment experience, which includes nightclubs, restaurants, shows, and spas.5 Card Poker Free
Las Vegas strip casinos are a perfect example of the gambling industry’schanged focus. It’s hard to find 3:2 payouts on the Vegas Strip, because these casinos are hyper focused on their amenities.
You must now go to downtown Vegas and Boulder Highway to find the majority of 6 to 5 tables. These casinos cater to gamblers first, and they often have player-friendly blackjack rules.
Meanwhile, casinos on the Vegas Strip and other parts of the world realize that many blackjack players are savvy enough to avoid 6:5 games. It’s not difficult for the average player to google blackjack rules on their smartphone and learn that natural payouts are highly important.
But casinos can still fool blackjack novices by offering single deck blackjack with 6 to 5 payouts. Casinos hang signs above these tables, so that players are attracted to the single deck aspect.
Some inexperienced blackjack players know that single deck games are better than 6 or 8-deck tables. But single deck blackjack has a higher house edge than 8-deck games with 3:2 natural payouts.
All other rules being equal, the 8-deck game would have a house advantage that’s 0.8% lower than the single deck game.
8 decks raise the house advantage by 0.59% when compared to a single deck. But an 8-deck game also sees the house edge lowered by 1.39% when accounting for 3 to 2 payouts (1.39 – 0.59 = 0.8%)Lower the House Edge with Other Good Rules
The good news is that you can find plenty of online blackjack games with 3:2 payouts. Unfortunately, this is becoming harder in land-based casinos.
Your area may only offer 6 to 5 blackjack tables in land-based casinos. This leaves you either forced to play online or looking for 6:5 blackjack with good supporting rules.Note
I suggest that you avoid playing any blackjack game with 6:5 payouts
But if you can’t stay away from the land-based tables, then you should at least find other good rules.
Here are key rules that you want to watch for when choosing a blackjack table:
*3:2 natural blackjack payouts – Lowers house edge by 1.40% in comparison to 6:5 payouts.
*Double down on any total – Lowers house edge by 0.25% in comparison to only doubling down on 9-11.
*Dealer must stand on a soft 17 – Lowers house edge by 0.2% in comparison to the dealer hitting a soft 17.
*Double down after splitting – Lowers house advantage by 0.17% when allowed.
*Re-splitting aces – Lowers house edge by 0.08% when allowed.
*Late surrender – Lowers the house edge by 0.07% when allowed.
*Number of decks – A single deck swings the house edge in a player’s favor by 0.02%. An 8-deck game gives the house a 0.57% advantage.
Odds are that you won’t find every favorable rule in a single 6 to 5 blackjack game. But most casinos will offer multiple favorable rules to help make up for the 6:5 payouts. Wheel of fortune playstation 3.
Assuming you play at a 6:5 blackjack table with all the other rules being optimal, you’re still facing a 1.02% house edge with perfect strategy. This figure increases as you begin taking away player-friendly rules.
Most players won’t come close to beating a blackjack game with 6 to 5 payouts when using basic strategy. But again, you can at least work the house advantage down closer to 1% with other good rules.
Ideally, your local casino(s) will offer 3:2 payouts, which is much better than any 6:5 game.How to Beat 6 to 5 Blackjack with Card Counting
Even the public knows that card counters can beat blackjack. 1979 liberty dollar.But what happens if you add 6 to 5 payouts to the equation?
The answer is that card counters have a much-tougher time beating blackjack.
Card counters gain their edge by betting more when the count is in their favor, or rather the shoe is rich in aces and 10s. More aces and 10s means a higher chance of getting a natural blackjack and more quality double-down opportunities.
A card counter using the Hi-Lo system spreads their bets when the true count is at least 2+ or higher. Allow me to quickly explain the Hi-Lo system before getting into the true count:
*Hi-Lo system assigns values to three groups of cards.
*2-6 = +1
*7-9 = 0
*10-A = -1
*You gain +1 each time a 2-6 is dealt, because this card range favors the dealer by lowering their odds of busting out.
*You get -1 each time 10 through ace are dealt, because your chances of getting a natural blackjack diminish.
The goal is to bet more with a high positive count, because this means the shoe is rich in aces and 10-value cards.
The regular count that you get is called the running count. But you want to convert this to a true count, which is more accurate for shoe (multi-deck) games.Blackjack 5 Card Rule
You divide the running count by the number of remaining decks in the shoe get a true count. You must estimate the number of decks based on the number of the cards in the shoe.
As an example of calculating the true count:
*You estimate that the shoe has four decks left.
*Your running count is +8.
*8 / 4 = +2 true count.
The last step of using the Hi-Lo system is to decide your bet spread. This refers to the gap between minimum table bet and your highest wager.
If you’re sitting on a blackjack table with a $5 minimum bet and your highest wager is $100, then you have a 1-20 spread. The 20 comes from how the highest bet is worth 20 minimum wagers.
Many players take things a step further by creating a unit size, so that they know when to increase their bet spread based on the true count. Here’s a common example used by the MIT Blackjack Team:
*Unit size = $25
*+1 or lower true count = minimum bet ($5 in this example)
*+2 true count = 1 unit (+25)
*+3 true count = 2 units (+50)
*+4 true count = 3 units (+75)
*+5 or higher true count = 4 units (+100)
Your true count won’t normally be above +4 in a single shoe. Therefore, the highest spread will normally be between 1-15.
Of course, you can always tweak your unit size as needed to achieve a large bet spread. But the downside is that you’re likely to draw more attention from the pit boss and security.
Now that I’ve explained how to use a card counting system and spread your bets, the next step is to figure out if you can beat a game with 6 to 5 payouts.
This becomes harder when dealing with Hi-Lo or natural blackjack payouts. But it’s still theoretically possible to beat a 6 to 5 game under the right conditions.
The only problem is that you need near-perfect conditions to win consistent profits from a 6 to 5 game. Look at the rules on a standard 6 to 5 table below:
*Single deck
*6:5 natural payout
*Dealer stands on a soft 17
*Double down after splitting
*House edge = 1.04% with perfect strategy.
Even with the other favorable rules, this table still has a higher house advantage than the average 3 to 2 table. That means you must look for tables with ideal card counting conditions to overcome this.
You’ll need a game that allows large bet spreads without drawing heat and around 50% deck penetration, which is how far the dealer goes into a shoe before reshuffling.
I mention 50% deck penetration, because few single deck games even make it to this point before being shuffled – let alone the 70-75% deck penetration you’d want with a 6 or 8-deck game.
You need a minimum spread of 1-10 before even gaining a slight advantage under these conditions. A 1-15 or 1-20 spread would be ideal in terms of making a 6:5 game worth your while.The only problem is that few casinos will turn a blind eye to a 1-10, 1-15, or 1-20 spread.
Some casinos are liberal with the lower end of this range. But your chances of being asked to leave the table (a.k.a. being backed off)increase when spreading 1-20 or beyond.
Card counters who have the right personality and ability to blend in with casual players have a better chance of getting away with high spreads. It also helps if you know what the pit boss and security look for regarding card counters.
But the average counter will have a tough time spreading their bet high enough to beat 6:5 tableswith card counting.Other Ways to Beat 6 to 5 Blackjack
I’ve established that it’s hard to beat 6:5 blackjack as a solo card counter using conventional methods. But you can also use a technique called “wonging in” to improve your odds.
Invented by gambling author Standard Wong, this strategy sees you stand off to the side of a blackjack table and count cards. You wait until the deck has a positive true count of +2 or more before taking a seat.The obvious advantage is that you skip all the hands with a +1 true count or lower and maximize your advantage
Most casinos don’t allow “mid shoe entry,” though, which minimizes the effectiveness of wonging. Some pit bosses are also suspicious when a new player sits down at a $10 minimum bet table and immediately wagers $150 or more.
Another way to beat 6 to 5 blackjack is with the “Big Player” technique, where two or more players work together. This strategy was made famous by the MIT Blackjack Team and is a good way to avoid casino detection.
This technique begins with “spotters,” who scout games while making minimum table bets. When the count is positive, they send a secret signal to the Big Player, who merely observes games until receiving this signal.
The Big Player sits down and immediately begins betting large amounts to take advantage of the positive count.
This works better than solo counting, because the Big Player doesn’t have to raise and lower their bets. Instead, they simply look like a high roller when making large wagers right away.The main question here, though, is why you’d go to the effort of recruiting a blackjack team and training together, only to play a less-profitable game?
Sure, you have a better chance of beating 6 to 5 games with a team. But it doesn’t make sense to play these games when you can still find 3 to 2 tables in many Vegas casinos.Conclusion
The original question at the beginning of this post was whether it’s possible to beat 6 to 5 blackjack game. And the answer is yes.
But there are some notable asterisks, including that you must spread bets larger and find favorable 6:5 tables. Using a larger bet spread means that you take a bigger risk of being backed off or even banned from a casino.
Other options include wonging in and forming a blackjack team. Wonging in comes with the same problems as bet spreading, because you either won’t be allowed mid-shoe entry or will draw extra attention for entering late into a shoe.
A blackjack team has a more-realistic chance of beating 6 to 5 blackjack than a solo counter. But it doesn’t make much sense to choose these games when a team can instead opt for 3:2tables.In Summary
It’s best to choose 3 to 2 blackjack whenever you have the opportunity. This benefits both card counters and basic strategy players in the long run.
But 6 to 5 blackjack isn’t the worst casino game in the grand scheme of things. Most of these tables offer less than a 2% house edge, which is lower than what you’ll see with many casino games.
6:5 blackjack is harmless in moderation when you use correct strategy. But look for 3:2 tables whenever possible so that you can improve your chances of winning even moreh4tHi Everyone,
I’m less interested in a final answer and more interested in a process to answer the following question.
Moreover, is my math estimate of probability a * probability b * probability c * probability d = final probability a valid way to solve this problem or not? Thanks for reading?
I’m interested in the following situational question - In a standard Double Deck game, What is the probability of being dealt a two card 20 as a starting hand, the dealer having an Ace up, and the player not taking insurance, and the dealer not having a blackjack, and the dealer drawing to a 5 card 21? What is the probability the same occuring, but being dealt a two card combination without including A,9 combos? For some reason when I do the math of the 52,2 20 combos by hand for % P = x/y, My brain freezes up :x. I lost my math skills 10 years ago :D. Any help/contribution/jumble of formulas/estimates welcome.
The number I got was roughly around .016% of the time. This seems awful low, and doesn’t account for the dealer not having it, as well as only counting 3+ card 21 draws. Solve for whatever you like, however you like. More interested in the process. :]ThatDonGuyThe two-card (besides A9) 20 combos in a double-deck game is easy. The only way to get a 2-card 20 besides an A9 is with two 10-count cards.
There are 32 of these in a double deck, so there are (32)C(2) = 496 different pairs you can get.
There are (104)C(2) = 5356 total pairs of cards in two decks.
The probability is 496 / 5356 = 0.0926, or about 1 / 10.8.h4tThanks Don for that sequence of it. My answer was coming up differently. Any insights into the other parts of the question appreciated.
Meanwhile.. And I quote another resource with the correct answer.
Probability of obtaining 20 points from the first two cards is P = 68/663 = 10.25641% in the case of a 1-deck game and P = 140/1339 = 10.45556% in the case of a 2-deck game.
[[P = 140/1339]] is the same as
[[P = 560/5356]]
We’ve got 496 different unique combos of face cards to make our 20, now what type of math do we use to get our apparent 64 combos of A,9?h4tI guess, visually, we just have to say _ * _, or 8 x 8, because there are 8 Aces we could draw for card1 to make 20, and 8 nines to fill card2.
When I try to choose 2 of 16 = 120 , and eliminate A,A combos and 9,9 combos, I come up with the wrong answer, still :/h4tso, here’s random info outlined from/for my question so far. feel free to correct me for the sake of. oh well.
Odds of drawing any two card 20 is 10.46%.
Odds of a Face 20 is 9.26%.
Odds of dealer having an Ace Up, disregarding our hand, is 8/104, or 7.70% of the time.
If we have an A,9 combo, the odds of one dealer Ace reduces to 7/102 or 6.86% o the time?
Moreover, the odds of the dealer having Ace Up, No blackjack in DD, disregarding our hand, should be.
A combo hand of one of [8] aces, plus any card A(7) thru 9, or [71] cards out of 5356 2 card combos for the deelah?!?!
8 x 71 / 5356
or 10.6% of the timegordonm888The only part of OP’s question that is hard is, given that dealer starts with an ace, what is the probability of dealer making a 5-card 21.
Does anyone know any way of calculating that probability other than essentially listing all the 4 card draws to an Ace that total 21 without making a soft 18-20 or a hard 17-20?
Assuming dealer hits a soft 17, basically there are two pathways for dealer to make a 5 card 21 starting from an Ace:Blackjack 5 Cards Under 21
1. Two small cards totally 2-6 to make a hand between S13-S17, followed by a card larger than a 4 to make a hard 12-16, followed by a final card to make 21.
2. One small card, A-6, followed, by a card (larger than a 4) to make a hard 12-15, followed by a small card to keep the total under 16, followed by a final card to make 21.
But, as you look at the details, I don’t think that is easy to write as an analytic algorithm.So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.Ace2You can easily do it with a Markov chain. You should only need 65 cells - 5 rows and 13 columns.
That’s assuming infinite deck which will be very close.
You could also list out all 5 card permutations, there are only 100,000.gordonm888
You can easily do it with a Markov chain. You should only need 65 cells - 5 rows and 13 columns.
I’m an excellent Excel programmer but I’m weak on Markov chains. Still trying to figure out how to do that.
Quote: Ace2
You could also list out all 5 card permutations, there are only 100,000.
No, the first card is always an Ace, which reduces it from 100,000 to 10,000. And then, you can eliminate whenever the 2nd card is a 7-T, which reduces it to 6,000. Then, also eliminate whenever the last card is a Ten or A-4, which reduces it to 3,000. Then, also eliminate these combinations:
- whenever the 2nd and 3rd card add to 7,8,9
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In the game of Blackjack, the term ’5 card charlie’ can be an option in the favor of the blackjack player instead of the casino. In this case, the player would win if they have 5 cards on the table for a single. Myth Debunked: Blackjack – Five Card Charlie April 16, 2014 / 22580 views I’ve been asked on occasion by players who would have five cards in front of them at a blackjack table about something called a “five card charlie”, which, in blackjack terms is a five card hand that does not exceed 21. Well I’m here to tell you. What is the Blackjack 5 card rule? I think the five card blackjack (21) rule you are asking about is what if you are playing blackjack and have five cards that total to an amount less than 21 and that is an automatic winner. People who play blackjack at home sometimes implement the “five-card-under” rule. 21 dealers in casinos are sometimes alerted by a player that they have five-cards-under.
One of the most-exciting things in blackjack is getting a “natural” hand, where your first two dealt cards equal 21. Provided the dealer doesn’t also have 21, you’ll receive either a 3 to 2 or 6 to 5 bonus payout.
Here’s how much you’d get for each of these payouts based on a $10 bet:
*3 to 2 payout = $15
*6 to 5 payout = $12
Many recreational blackjack players are happy to get a natural under any circumstances. And $3 doesn’t seem like a big difference in the scenario above.
This is especially true when considering that you’ll only receive a blackjack 4.75% of the time in a 6-deck game. But changing a natural blackjack payout from 3:2 to 6:5 does have a noticeable impact on your odds of winning.
The house edge increases by 1.39% when the natural payout is lowered to 6:5. This difference is profound enough to the point where players wonder if it’s even possible to beat 6:5 games.
I’m going to cover how you can improve your chances of winning in 6:5 blackjack with basic strategy. And you may be surprised to learn that it’s theoretically possible to beat 6:5 games when counting cards under the right conditions.
But first, here’s a look at when land-based casinos began switching to the 6:5 format and why they did it.Shifting Casino Focus Caused Rise in 6 to 5 Blackjack
Mostland-based blackjack games used to feature 3 to 2 payouts. This meant that you could pick just about any blackjack table and have a solid chance of winning.
But many blackjack tables around the world now have 6 to 5 payouts. This is obviously worse for players, because it’s harder to find beatable blackjack games.The reason why brick-and-mortar casinos now offer 6:5 blackjack is because their focus has shifted away from gambling.
This isn’t to say that casinos don’t still care about gamblers. But many don’t consider gambling part of an all-around entertainment experience, which includes nightclubs, restaurants, shows, and spas.5 Card Poker Free
Las Vegas strip casinos are a perfect example of the gambling industry’schanged focus. It’s hard to find 3:2 payouts on the Vegas Strip, because these casinos are hyper focused on their amenities.
You must now go to downtown Vegas and Boulder Highway to find the majority of 6 to 5 tables. These casinos cater to gamblers first, and they often have player-friendly blackjack rules.
Meanwhile, casinos on the Vegas Strip and other parts of the world realize that many blackjack players are savvy enough to avoid 6:5 games. It’s not difficult for the average player to google blackjack rules on their smartphone and learn that natural payouts are highly important.
But casinos can still fool blackjack novices by offering single deck blackjack with 6 to 5 payouts. Casinos hang signs above these tables, so that players are attracted to the single deck aspect.
Some inexperienced blackjack players know that single deck games are better than 6 or 8-deck tables. But single deck blackjack has a higher house edge than 8-deck games with 3:2 natural payouts.
All other rules being equal, the 8-deck game would have a house advantage that’s 0.8% lower than the single deck game.
8 decks raise the house advantage by 0.59% when compared to a single deck. But an 8-deck game also sees the house edge lowered by 1.39% when accounting for 3 to 2 payouts (1.39 – 0.59 = 0.8%)Lower the House Edge with Other Good Rules
The good news is that you can find plenty of online blackjack games with 3:2 payouts. Unfortunately, this is becoming harder in land-based casinos.
Your area may only offer 6 to 5 blackjack tables in land-based casinos. This leaves you either forced to play online or looking for 6:5 blackjack with good supporting rules.Note
I suggest that you avoid playing any blackjack game with 6:5 payouts
But if you can’t stay away from the land-based tables, then you should at least find other good rules.
Here are key rules that you want to watch for when choosing a blackjack table:
*3:2 natural blackjack payouts – Lowers house edge by 1.40% in comparison to 6:5 payouts.
*Double down on any total – Lowers house edge by 0.25% in comparison to only doubling down on 9-11.
*Dealer must stand on a soft 17 – Lowers house edge by 0.2% in comparison to the dealer hitting a soft 17.
*Double down after splitting – Lowers house advantage by 0.17% when allowed.
*Re-splitting aces – Lowers house edge by 0.08% when allowed.
*Late surrender – Lowers the house edge by 0.07% when allowed.
*Number of decks – A single deck swings the house edge in a player’s favor by 0.02%. An 8-deck game gives the house a 0.57% advantage.
Odds are that you won’t find every favorable rule in a single 6 to 5 blackjack game. But most casinos will offer multiple favorable rules to help make up for the 6:5 payouts. Wheel of fortune playstation 3.
Assuming you play at a 6:5 blackjack table with all the other rules being optimal, you’re still facing a 1.02% house edge with perfect strategy. This figure increases as you begin taking away player-friendly rules.
Most players won’t come close to beating a blackjack game with 6 to 5 payouts when using basic strategy. But again, you can at least work the house advantage down closer to 1% with other good rules.
Ideally, your local casino(s) will offer 3:2 payouts, which is much better than any 6:5 game.How to Beat 6 to 5 Blackjack with Card Counting
Even the public knows that card counters can beat blackjack. 1979 liberty dollar.But what happens if you add 6 to 5 payouts to the equation?
The answer is that card counters have a much-tougher time beating blackjack.
Card counters gain their edge by betting more when the count is in their favor, or rather the shoe is rich in aces and 10s. More aces and 10s means a higher chance of getting a natural blackjack and more quality double-down opportunities.
A card counter using the Hi-Lo system spreads their bets when the true count is at least 2+ or higher. Allow me to quickly explain the Hi-Lo system before getting into the true count:
*Hi-Lo system assigns values to three groups of cards.
*2-6 = +1
*7-9 = 0
*10-A = -1
*You gain +1 each time a 2-6 is dealt, because this card range favors the dealer by lowering their odds of busting out.
*You get -1 each time 10 through ace are dealt, because your chances of getting a natural blackjack diminish.
The goal is to bet more with a high positive count, because this means the shoe is rich in aces and 10-value cards.
The regular count that you get is called the running count. But you want to convert this to a true count, which is more accurate for shoe (multi-deck) games.Blackjack 5 Card Rule
You divide the running count by the number of remaining decks in the shoe get a true count. You must estimate the number of decks based on the number of the cards in the shoe.
As an example of calculating the true count:
*You estimate that the shoe has four decks left.
*Your running count is +8.
*8 / 4 = +2 true count.
The last step of using the Hi-Lo system is to decide your bet spread. This refers to the gap between minimum table bet and your highest wager.
If you’re sitting on a blackjack table with a $5 minimum bet and your highest wager is $100, then you have a 1-20 spread. The 20 comes from how the highest bet is worth 20 minimum wagers.
Many players take things a step further by creating a unit size, so that they know when to increase their bet spread based on the true count. Here’s a common example used by the MIT Blackjack Team:
*Unit size = $25
*+1 or lower true count = minimum bet ($5 in this example)
*+2 true count = 1 unit (+25)
*+3 true count = 2 units (+50)
*+4 true count = 3 units (+75)
*+5 or higher true count = 4 units (+100)
Your true count won’t normally be above +4 in a single shoe. Therefore, the highest spread will normally be between 1-15.
Of course, you can always tweak your unit size as needed to achieve a large bet spread. But the downside is that you’re likely to draw more attention from the pit boss and security.
Now that I’ve explained how to use a card counting system and spread your bets, the next step is to figure out if you can beat a game with 6 to 5 payouts.
This becomes harder when dealing with Hi-Lo or natural blackjack payouts. But it’s still theoretically possible to beat a 6 to 5 game under the right conditions.
The only problem is that you need near-perfect conditions to win consistent profits from a 6 to 5 game. Look at the rules on a standard 6 to 5 table below:
*Single deck
*6:5 natural payout
*Dealer stands on a soft 17
*Double down after splitting
*House edge = 1.04% with perfect strategy.
Even with the other favorable rules, this table still has a higher house advantage than the average 3 to 2 table. That means you must look for tables with ideal card counting conditions to overcome this.
You’ll need a game that allows large bet spreads without drawing heat and around 50% deck penetration, which is how far the dealer goes into a shoe before reshuffling.
I mention 50% deck penetration, because few single deck games even make it to this point before being shuffled – let alone the 70-75% deck penetration you’d want with a 6 or 8-deck game.
You need a minimum spread of 1-10 before even gaining a slight advantage under these conditions. A 1-15 or 1-20 spread would be ideal in terms of making a 6:5 game worth your while.The only problem is that few casinos will turn a blind eye to a 1-10, 1-15, or 1-20 spread.
Some casinos are liberal with the lower end of this range. But your chances of being asked to leave the table (a.k.a. being backed off)increase when spreading 1-20 or beyond.
Card counters who have the right personality and ability to blend in with casual players have a better chance of getting away with high spreads. It also helps if you know what the pit boss and security look for regarding card counters.
But the average counter will have a tough time spreading their bet high enough to beat 6:5 tableswith card counting.Other Ways to Beat 6 to 5 Blackjack
I’ve established that it’s hard to beat 6:5 blackjack as a solo card counter using conventional methods. But you can also use a technique called “wonging in” to improve your odds.
Invented by gambling author Standard Wong, this strategy sees you stand off to the side of a blackjack table and count cards. You wait until the deck has a positive true count of +2 or more before taking a seat.The obvious advantage is that you skip all the hands with a +1 true count or lower and maximize your advantage
Most casinos don’t allow “mid shoe entry,” though, which minimizes the effectiveness of wonging. Some pit bosses are also suspicious when a new player sits down at a $10 minimum bet table and immediately wagers $150 or more.
Another way to beat 6 to 5 blackjack is with the “Big Player” technique, where two or more players work together. This strategy was made famous by the MIT Blackjack Team and is a good way to avoid casino detection.
This technique begins with “spotters,” who scout games while making minimum table bets. When the count is positive, they send a secret signal to the Big Player, who merely observes games until receiving this signal.
The Big Player sits down and immediately begins betting large amounts to take advantage of the positive count.
This works better than solo counting, because the Big Player doesn’t have to raise and lower their bets. Instead, they simply look like a high roller when making large wagers right away.The main question here, though, is why you’d go to the effort of recruiting a blackjack team and training together, only to play a less-profitable game?
Sure, you have a better chance of beating 6 to 5 games with a team. But it doesn’t make sense to play these games when you can still find 3 to 2 tables in many Vegas casinos.Conclusion
The original question at the beginning of this post was whether it’s possible to beat 6 to 5 blackjack game. And the answer is yes.
But there are some notable asterisks, including that you must spread bets larger and find favorable 6:5 tables. Using a larger bet spread means that you take a bigger risk of being backed off or even banned from a casino.
Other options include wonging in and forming a blackjack team. Wonging in comes with the same problems as bet spreading, because you either won’t be allowed mid-shoe entry or will draw extra attention for entering late into a shoe.
A blackjack team has a more-realistic chance of beating 6 to 5 blackjack than a solo counter. But it doesn’t make much sense to choose these games when a team can instead opt for 3:2tables.In Summary
It’s best to choose 3 to 2 blackjack whenever you have the opportunity. This benefits both card counters and basic strategy players in the long run.
But 6 to 5 blackjack isn’t the worst casino game in the grand scheme of things. Most of these tables offer less than a 2% house edge, which is lower than what you’ll see with many casino games.
6:5 blackjack is harmless in moderation when you use correct strategy. But look for 3:2 tables whenever possible so that you can improve your chances of winning even moreh4tHi Everyone,
I’m less interested in a final answer and more interested in a process to answer the following question.
Moreover, is my math estimate of probability a * probability b * probability c * probability d = final probability a valid way to solve this problem or not? Thanks for reading?
I’m interested in the following situational question - In a standard Double Deck game, What is the probability of being dealt a two card 20 as a starting hand, the dealer having an Ace up, and the player not taking insurance, and the dealer not having a blackjack, and the dealer drawing to a 5 card 21? What is the probability the same occuring, but being dealt a two card combination without including A,9 combos? For some reason when I do the math of the 52,2 20 combos by hand for % P = x/y, My brain freezes up :x. I lost my math skills 10 years ago :D. Any help/contribution/jumble of formulas/estimates welcome.
The number I got was roughly around .016% of the time. This seems awful low, and doesn’t account for the dealer not having it, as well as only counting 3+ card 21 draws. Solve for whatever you like, however you like. More interested in the process. :]ThatDonGuyThe two-card (besides A9) 20 combos in a double-deck game is easy. The only way to get a 2-card 20 besides an A9 is with two 10-count cards.
There are 32 of these in a double deck, so there are (32)C(2) = 496 different pairs you can get.
There are (104)C(2) = 5356 total pairs of cards in two decks.
The probability is 496 / 5356 = 0.0926, or about 1 / 10.8.h4tThanks Don for that sequence of it. My answer was coming up differently. Any insights into the other parts of the question appreciated.
Meanwhile.. And I quote another resource with the correct answer.
Probability of obtaining 20 points from the first two cards is P = 68/663 = 10.25641% in the case of a 1-deck game and P = 140/1339 = 10.45556% in the case of a 2-deck game.
[[P = 140/1339]] is the same as
[[P = 560/5356]]
We’ve got 496 different unique combos of face cards to make our 20, now what type of math do we use to get our apparent 64 combos of A,9?h4tI guess, visually, we just have to say _ * _, or 8 x 8, because there are 8 Aces we could draw for card1 to make 20, and 8 nines to fill card2.
When I try to choose 2 of 16 = 120 , and eliminate A,A combos and 9,9 combos, I come up with the wrong answer, still :/h4tso, here’s random info outlined from/for my question so far. feel free to correct me for the sake of. oh well.
Odds of drawing any two card 20 is 10.46%.
Odds of a Face 20 is 9.26%.
Odds of dealer having an Ace Up, disregarding our hand, is 8/104, or 7.70% of the time.
If we have an A,9 combo, the odds of one dealer Ace reduces to 7/102 or 6.86% o the time?
Moreover, the odds of the dealer having Ace Up, No blackjack in DD, disregarding our hand, should be.
A combo hand of one of [8] aces, plus any card A(7) thru 9, or [71] cards out of 5356 2 card combos for the deelah?!?!
8 x 71 / 5356
or 10.6% of the timegordonm888The only part of OP’s question that is hard is, given that dealer starts with an ace, what is the probability of dealer making a 5-card 21.
Does anyone know any way of calculating that probability other than essentially listing all the 4 card draws to an Ace that total 21 without making a soft 18-20 or a hard 17-20?
Assuming dealer hits a soft 17, basically there are two pathways for dealer to make a 5 card 21 starting from an Ace:Blackjack 5 Cards Under 21
1. Two small cards totally 2-6 to make a hand between S13-S17, followed by a card larger than a 4 to make a hard 12-16, followed by a final card to make 21.
2. One small card, A-6, followed, by a card (larger than a 4) to make a hard 12-15, followed by a small card to keep the total under 16, followed by a final card to make 21.
But, as you look at the details, I don’t think that is easy to write as an analytic algorithm.So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.Ace2You can easily do it with a Markov chain. You should only need 65 cells - 5 rows and 13 columns.
That’s assuming infinite deck which will be very close.
You could also list out all 5 card permutations, there are only 100,000.gordonm888
You can easily do it with a Markov chain. You should only need 65 cells - 5 rows and 13 columns.
I’m an excellent Excel programmer but I’m weak on Markov chains. Still trying to figure out how to do that.
Quote: Ace2
You could also list out all 5 card permutations, there are only 100,000.
No, the first card is always an Ace, which reduces it from 100,000 to 10,000. And then, you can eliminate whenever the 2nd card is a 7-T, which reduces it to 6,000. Then, also eliminate whenever the last card is a Ten or A-4, which reduces it to 3,000. Then, also eliminate these combinations:
- whenever the 2nd and 3rd card add to 7,8,9
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